Saturday Winter Storm Update

A major winter storm is set to cross the Ohio Valley west to east late Sunday and continue through most of Monday. The storm will bring mainly snow to the Tuscarawas Valley area but there is also the potential for a period of mixed precipitation late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

This update is just a few notes to keep you updated with the most recent trends and expectations. Let’s get right to it…

1.There is high confidence that the storm will bring impactful winter weather hazards to our area Sunday night and Monday.
2.Snow showers will likely begin moving into east-central Ohio from the southwest late Sunday night (9/10pm-ish).
3.Moderate to heavy snowfall is likely at times – especially Sunday night into early Monday.
4.The most recent data Saturday morning suggests that there will be enough snow accumulation by Monday morning to impact your commute to work and school.
5.There can be a period on Monday morning when sleet can mix into the system. This will depend greatly on whether the storm tracks a bit further to the north.
6.While the heaviest snowfall rates are likely to occur Sunday night through Monday morning, snow showers will likely continue through much of the day on Monday with varying snowfall rates.
7.Northwest winds on Monday can run in the 20-30 mph range.
8.Widespread snow showers end Monday night, however, periodic snow showers will continue through at lease Thursday.

This morning’s model data still shows some differences in the north/south position of the storm track. Recent overnight runs have started to agree somewhat with the GFS track. The GFS model has been fairly consistent with a more northerly track for quite some time. This is important because the north/south track of the storm will have big implications on snow amounts in our area.

Since the center of low pressure associated with this storm will be well to our south, snow amounts in the southern third of the county will likely be higher than those communities roughly along and north of New Philadelphia. There is also a slightly higher risk of southern areas getting a period of sleet early Monday.

LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS
It’s important to note that these amounts are a worst-case scenario (10% chance). In reality, it is much more likely that less snow will accumulate. Also, note that this is the total amount today through Tuesday morning – a roughly 72-hour period. Again, the heaviest snowfall is likely to fall Sunday night through Monday morning. Additional periodic snow will fall Monday afternoon through early Tuesday.

The map above will likely undergo some changes over the next 24 hours and we’ll publish those changes as the forecast continues to evolve. Do expect to receive enough snow to shovel/plow and impact your travel plans early in the week.

Updates will be posted later this evening and we’ll outline any changes in model trends. Expect a final update on Sunday morning.

Thanks for choosing TUSCWeather as your local weather resource. Enjoy the weather. be safe out there.

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